The Worth of J.J. Redick

Bucks for Buckets: is Redick overpaid?

– Jacob Smith

     As a fan of Clemson basketball, I tend not to be a fan of other ACC teams.  Miami and NC State are cool, Florida State’s a respected rival, and me being a fan of Georgia anything, I don’t care to mention that sissy yellow team.  But of course, the two at the top are Duke and the hated North Carolina.  Needless to say, I like it when those teams struggle (this year’s Tar Heels) so my team can do better.  Which they don’t, because they’re Clemson, and they have to break our hearts.  Nonetheless, I have no use for Heels or Dukies.

     But I’ve always been a J.J. Redick fan.  My fandom of Redick has been well recorded (just look at my Twitter feed during the season), because even when he was torching us, I loved watching Coach K run this guy off screens, and I loved watching him hit every shot that team needed.  He was confident, borderline cocky, but he carried a swagger that few Duke nerds could.  His lack of athleticism (I can jump higher now than he could in college) and general tournament struggles tended to hurt his NBA future.  Then again, Adam Morrison got picked third overall, so what do I know.

     After struggling to begin his NBA career, including a trade-me-so-I-can-play that was ignored somewhat embarrasingly, Redick had a breakthrough late last season.  He started this season right where he left off, and finished the season averaging 9.6 points on .439 FG% and .405 3P%.  After Vince Carter left a game early with an injured toe, Redick stepped in and recorded 23 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in an exceptional performance.

     The last two years, Redick has provided energy, smart decision making and shooting off the bench, along with some surprising defense in the playoffs.  Entering LeBron’s Summer of 2010 as an unrestricted free agent, Redick was shopped by multiple contending teams, including Boston and the new-look Bulls.  Chicago, full of cap space after whiffing on the Miami trio, offered Redick a three year contract that was first-year-loaded, throwing the gauntlet down to Orlando: Either lose your arguably most important bench player, or sink further over the cap by overpaying a backup shooting guard.  Using every day to consider the offer, Otis Smith decided to match Chicago’s offer and keep J.J. Redick with a 3 year, $19 million deal.

     Is he worth it?

     J.J Redick’s deal looks like this:

     Year One: $7.5 million
     Year Two: $6.5 million
     Year Three: $6 million

     So, in 2010-11, Redick becomes the fourth highest paid player on the team, behind Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, and the contract that God forgot, Rashard Lewis.  A guy who averages 10-2-2 off the bench will make more than Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus.  Jameer’s an nigh-All Star, Pietrus has been solid wherever he’s gone, and Gortat was close to being overpaid by the Dallas Mavericks and could be the best backup center in the league, close with Ming-Miller and Perkins-Jermaine.

     With $7.5 million in 2010-11, Redick’s contract is comparative to Ron Artest’s ($6.3 mil), Shawn Marion ($7.3 mil), Andre Miller ($7.2 mil), Paul Millsap ($6.2 mil), Shane Battier ($7.3 mil),  and Anderson Varejao ($7.0 mil), all key players on contenders. (Cleveland was a contender last year.)  To put it in further context, Redick will be making more money next season than anybody on the Oklahoma City roster.

     Is Redick’s value comparable to Artest, Marion, or Millsap?  First thought would be an immediate no.  Redick’s calling cards are three-bombs and energy.  But let’s say J.J. becomes the model of consistency over the next three years, slowly increasing (by minutes played) the production that earned him what is now called “Darko Milicic money.”

     Note: All of these improvements are hypothetical and optimistic.  You never know, last year could have been Redick’s career year.  A player’s prime is usually in the 26-29 range, and Redick could go as far as 30, with his limited athleticism actually helping him by not wearing out his knees.  So this is under the purely hypothetical assumption that J.J. will improve until he hits his peak around his late 20s.

     Redick played 22.0 minutes per game last season, as opposed to 17.5 last season, when he made significant improvement late in the year.  Having finally put himself into Stan Van Gundy’s rotation, and following this pattern of minutes, we can safely guess J.J. will play 26 to 27 minutes per game this year, roughly the same amount of mpg Larry Hughes had in New York last season.

      Following the pattern of his production, Redick’s averages would inflate to:
: 10.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, .446 FG%, .408 3P% ::

     For $7.5 million a year, Redick’s 10, 2, and 2 are still looking pretty overpaid.  Although shooting 45% and 41% respectively is not a bad clip.

     In the second year of his contract, Redick drops to $6.5 million.  He’s 26, providing a bench presence, shooting, some improved decision making, and underrated playoff defense.  Now making about as much as much money as Ron Artest, Redick’s contract is looking slightly more reasonable.  This would also be J.J.’s first year without Vince Carter, considering in 2011-2012 the Magic have the chance to dump Vince’s $18 million contract, which I’m thinking they will barring a redemption story performance from Carter in the 2010-2011 playoffs.  For some reason I can’t see Otis Smith leaving Redick as the starting 2-man in the system, so he uses his Vince money to buy an athletic defensive guard, a la’ Mickael Pietrus.  Or, Van Gundy just starts Pietrus. who should keep his $5.3 million player option.

     Still, Pietrus can’t be left on the floor as long as Vince could, so Redick’s minutes should increase again.  Splitting Vince’s minutes with Pietrus, Nelson, Gortat, and whoever else Otis brings aboard, we’ll stick with J.J.’s pattern of increase, leaving him at about 30 to 31 minutes a game, which is almost precisely Carter’s minutes with team in 2009-10.  Inflated again with the pattern of improvement, J.J.’s line becomes:
:: 11.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, .453 FG%, .411 3P% ::

     That’s a little more respectable for $6.5 million dollars.  Remember, Redick is likely staying on the bench, and is never Orlando’s first offensive option.  So for the third or fourth option on the floor to record an 11-2-3, while shooting 45% and 41% respectively, and providing some energy and defense,  J.J. is starting to earn his keep, although making Ron Artest kind of money, he can still be labled “slightly overpaid.”  Redick can now be making some serious comparisons to Kyle Korver.

       Fast forward to the third and final year of the contract.  J.J. is 28, and just now hitting his peak.  This is probably the last season he’ll improve, before maintaing a good line for the next six to eight years and retiring in the Duke White Boy Hall of Fame.  Continuing our pattern, this should be Redick’s career year, with his minutes hitting the 33 minute range, which is Jason Richardson territory from 2010-11.  His projected stat line:
:: 12 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, .460 3P%, .421 FG% ::

     For $6 million dollars a year, that’s a pretty good stat line.  J.J.’s becoming one of the best bench players in the NBA, is able to hit 25 footers blindfolded, and turns the ball over once per century or so.  Well, maybe he’s not that good, but you get the point, the boy can play now.  He’s putting out a stat line close to Grant Hill’s 2009-10 season, while getting paid as much as Sasha Vujacic’s 2009-10 season.

     So for $19 million, Redick’s three year averages are:
: 11.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, .453 3P%, .413 FG% ::

     This also isn’t including J.J.’s intangibles that can’t be found on your basic stat sheet.  Redick has hounded the likes of Ray Allen the last two years, especially in the playoffs.  He’s shown a knack for hitting big shots, and he’s one of the best “pass-it-to-Dwight” players on the team.  With Dwight Howard also improving, that just means more looks for Redick, whether it be a three pointer or a quick pass around the perimeter to an open teammate.

     So is Redick overpaid?  He’ll be earning the same amount of money as Ray Allen (2 years, $20 mil), who we can assume should keep up his consistency for about two years, give or take a point or two, in the veteran system of the Celtics.  So comparing Redick’s projected three year stats against Ray Allen’s 2009-10 season:

Redick: 11.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, .453 3P%, .413 FG%, 29.5 mpg
Ray-Ray: 16.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, .363 3P%, .477 FG%, 35.2 mpg

     So J.J., with about one-half a quarter less to work with, scores five points fewer than Ray Allen, albeit with fewer attempts and a much lower percentage than Jesus Shuttlesworth.  With Redick not starting (although getting starters’ minutes) and being the third to fifth option on offense, that’s not bad.

     At least not for Darko Milicic money.

(Stats courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com and www.hoopshype.com)